Impact of 3-year changes in fasting insulin and insulin resistance indices on incident hypertension: Tehran lipid and glucose study

Table 3 Multivariable-adjusted hazard ratios of incident hypertension by quartiles of changes in fasting serum insulin, HOMA-IR, and IGR in whole population

	HR (95% CI)				P for trend	AIC	C index %
	1st (reference)	2nd	3rd	4th
Insulin^a
Model 1	1.00	1.15 (0.88–1.50)	1.48 (1.14–1.92)	1.85 (1.44–2.37)	< 0.001	8920.4	71.6
Model 2	1.00	1.02 (0.78–1.33)	1.37 (1.05–1.77)	1.48 (1.15–1.90)	0.001	8572.3	79.7
Model 3	1.00	0.96 (0.73–1.25)	1.27 (0.98–1.66)	1.31 (1.01–1.69)	0.015	8556.7	80.1
HOMA-IR^b
Model 1	1.00	0.99 (0.76–1.28)	1.15 (0.89–1.49)	1.65 (1.30–2.10)	< 0.001	8925.9	71.4
Model 2	1.00	0.86 (0.66–1.12)	1.08 (0.83–1.40)	1.34 (1.05–1.71)	0.002	8572.0	79.6
Model 3	1.00	0.81 (0.63–1.06)	1.00 (0.77–1.30)	1.18 (0.92–1.52)	0.016	8555.6	80.1
IGR^c
Model 1	1.00	1.30 (1.00–1.69)	1.62 (1.25–2.09)	1.98 (1.54–2.54)	< 0.001	8925.0	71.6
Model 2	1.00	1.28 (0.99–1.67)	1.52 (1.17–1.97)	1.68 (1.31–2.17)	< 0.001	8568.1	79.8
Model 3	1.00	1.21 (0.93–1.58)	1.40 (1.08–1.82)	1.53 (1.18–1.98)	0.008	8553.8	80.2

HOMA-IR homeostasis model assessment of insulin resistance, IGR insulin-glucose ratio, HR hazard ratio, CI confidence interval, AIC Akaike’s information criteria, CVD cardiovascular disease, SBP systolic blood pressure, DBP diastolic blood pressure, BMI body mass index, FPG fasting plasma glucose, TC total cholesterol, TG triglycerides, HDL-C high density lipoprotein cholesterol, eGFR estimated glomerular filtration rate
^aModel 1: adjusted for age, sex, and baseline insulin; Model 2: model 1 + smoking, physical activity, marital status, history of CVD, education level, and baseline levels of SBP, DBP, BMI, FPG, TC, TG, HDL-C, and eGFR; Model 3: model 2 + BMI changes
^bModel 1: adjusted for age, sex, and baseline HOMA-IR; Model 2: model 1 + smoking, physical activity, marital status, history of CVD, education level, and baseline levels of SBP, DBP, BMI, TC, TG, HDL-C, and eGFR; Model 3: model 2 + BMI changes
^cModel 1: adjusted for age, sex, and baseline IGR; Model 2: model 1 + smoking, physical activity, marital status, history of CVD, education level, and baseline levels of SBP, DBP, BMI, TC, TG, HDL-C, and eGFR; Model 3: model 2 + BMI changes

ISSN: 1743-7075