Table 2 Hazard ratios (HRs) for diabetes according to baseline body mass index (BMI) and waist circumference (WC) values in older individuals (2015–2018)

Number

24,806

12,556

775

3068

12,707

7675

New cases of diabetes (%)

433 (1.7%)

293 (2.3%)

22 (2.8%)

53 (1.7%)

348 (2.7%)

265 (3.5%)

No. per 1000 person-years

4.9

6.6

8.0

4.9

7.7

9.7

HR (95% CI)*^△

1.00

1.33 (1.15–1.54)

1.60 (1.05–2.46)

0.99 (0.74–1.31)

1.53 (1.33–1.77)

1.93 (1.66–2.25)

Men

 Number

11,184

6405

366

1047

5145

3064

 New cases of diabetes (%)

204 (1.8%)

16 (2.5%)

15 (4.1%)

14 (1.3%)

144 (2.8%)

99 (3.2%)

 No. per 1000 person-years

5.2

7.1

11.5

3.8

8.1

9.0

 HR (95% CI)*^△

1.00

1.38 (1.13–1.70)

2.24 (1.32–3.78)

0.75 (0.44–1.29)

1.54 (1.24–1.91)

1.76 (1.38–2.24)

Women

 Number

13,622

6151

409

2021

7562

4611

 New cases of diabetes (%)

229 (1.7%)

131 (2.1%)

7 (1.7%)

39 (1.9%)

204 (2.7%)

166 (3.6%)

 No. per 1000 person-years

4.7

5.8

4.8

5.4

7.5

10.1

 HR (95% CI)*^△

1.00

1.24 (1.00–1.54)

0.99 (0.47–2.10)

1.16 (0.82–1.62)

1.57 (1.30–1.90)

2.10 (1.72–2.56)

Age < 75 years

 Number

20,390

10,866

673

2448

10,827

6758

 New cases of diabetes (%)

377 (1.8%)

253 (2.3%)

21 (3.1%)

44 (1.8%)

310 (2.9%)

247 (3.7%)

 No. per 1000 person-years

5.2

6.5

8.8

5.1

8.1

10.2

 HR (95% CI)*^△

1.00

1.26 (1.08–1.48)

1.68 (1.08–2.61)

0.96 (0.71–1.32)

1.52 (1.31–1.77)

1.95 (1.66–2.29)

Age ≥ 75 years

 Number

4416

1690

102

620

1880

917

 New cases of diabetes (%)

56 (1.3%)

40 (2.4%)

1 (1.0%)

9 (1.5%)

38 (2.0%)

18 (2.0%)

 No. per 1000 person-years

3.6

6.7

2.7

4.1

5.7

5.5

 HR (95% CI)**^△

1.00

1.92 (1.28–2.89)

0.80 (0.11–5.77)

1.13 (0.56–2.28)

1.60 (1.06–2.41)

1.57 (0.92–2.67)