Table 4 Hazard ratios (HRs) for diabetes according to weight, body mass index (BMI), and waist circumference (WC) variation in older individuals (2015–2018)
Weight change (kg) | < − 6 | − 6 to − 3 | − 3 to 0 | 0 | 0 to 3 | 3 to 6 | > 6 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Number New-onset diabetes (%) | 3694 122 (3.3%) | 6062 | 13,730 | 15,313 | 13,365 | 5417 | 4006 |
134 (2.2%) | 283 (2.1%) | 348 (2.3%) | 239 (1.8%) | 129 (2.4%) | 159 (4.0%) | ||
New-onset diabetes/1000 person-years | 9.7 | 6.2 | 5.8 | 6.5 | 5.0 | 6.7 | 11.4 |
HR (95% CI)*△ | 1.48 (1.21–1.83) | 0.98 (0.81–1.20) | 0.91 (0.77–1.06) | 1.00 | 0.79 (0.67–0.93) | 1.05 (0.86–1.29) | 1.77 (1.47–2.14) |
Weight change (%) | < − 10% | − 10% to − 5% | − 5% to 0 | 0 | 0 to 5% | 5% to 10% | > 10% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Number | 3103 | 5348 | 10,054 | 19,206 | 10,100 | 6796 | 6980 |
New-onset diabetes (%) | 67 (2.2%) | 130 (2.4%) | 233 (2.3%) | 393 (2.0%) | 217 (2.1%) | 167 (2.5%) | 207 (3.0%) |
New-onset diabetes/1000 person-years | 6.1 | 6.8 | 6.5 | 5.8 | 6.0 | 6.9 | 8.4 |
HR (95% CI)*△ | 1.08 (0.83–1.40) | 1.19 (0.97–1.45) | 1.14 (0.97–1.34) | 1.00 | 1.06 (0.90–1.25) | 1.21 (1.01–1.45) | 1.48 (1.25–1.75) |
BMI change (kg/m2) | < − 2 | − 2 to − 1 | − 1 to 0 | 0 | 0 to 1 | 1 to 2 | > 2 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Number | 4655 | 6613 | 11,206 | 12,422 | 11,869 | 7453 | 7369 | |
New-onset diabetes (%) | 142 (3.1%) | 145 (2.2%) | 226 (2.0%) | 288 (2.3%) | 228 (1.9%) | 139 (1.9%) | 246 (3.3%) | |
New-onset diabetes/1000 person-years | 8.6 | 6.1 | 5.6 | 6.5 | 5.4 | 5.2 | 9.5 | |
HR (95% CI)*△ | 1.32 (1.08–1.62) | 0.95 (0.78–1.16) | 0.87 (0.73–1.04) | 1.00 | 0.83 (0.70–0.99) | 0.80 (0.65–0.98) | 1.45 (1.22–1.72) | |
BMI change (%) | < − 10% | − 10% to − 5% | − 5% to 0 | 0 | 0 to 5% | 5% to 10% | > 10% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Number | 2917 | 6073 | 13,543 | 12,422 | 13,782 | 7045 | 5805 |
New-onset diabetes (%) | 84 (2.9%) | 150 (2.5%) | 281 (2.1%) | 288 (2.3%) | 258 (1.9%) | 156 (2.2%) | 197 (3.4%) |
New-onset diabetes/1000 person-years | 8.1 | 6.9 | 5.8 | 6.5 | 5.2 | 6.2 | 9.7 |
HR (95% CI)*△ | 1.27 (0.99–1.62) | 1.07 (0.88–1.30) | 0.90 (0.76–1.06) | 1.00 | 0.81 (0.68–0.95) | 0.96 (0.79–1.16) | 1.48 (1.23–1.77) |
WC change (cm) | < − 6 | − 6 to -3 | − 3 to 0 | 0 | 0 to 3 | 3 to 6 | > 6 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Number | 5451 | 5027 | 8027 | 19,206 | 8242 | 6272 | 9362 |
New-onset diabetes (%) | 129 (2.4%) | 121 (2.4%) | 180 (2.2%) | 393 (2.0%) | 167 (2.0%) | 159 (2.5%) | 265 (2.8%) |
New-onset diabetes/1000 person-years | 6.6 | 6.7 | 6.4 | 5.8 | 5.7 | 7.1 | 8.0 |
HR (95% CI)*△ | 1.17 (0.96–1.43) | 1.17 (0.96–1.44) | 1.10 (0.92–1.31) | 1.00 | 1.00 (0.83–1.19) | 1.25 (1.04–1.50) | 1.41 (1.20–1.65) |
WC change (%) | < − 10% | − 10% to − 5% | − 5% to 0 | 0 | 0 to 5% | 5% to 10% | > 10% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Number | 3103 | 5348 | 10,054 | 19,206 | 10,100 | 6796 | 6980 |
New-onset diabetes (%) | 67 (2.2%) | 130 (2.4%) | 233 (2.3%) | 393 (2.0%) | 217 (2.1%) | 167 (2.5%) | 207 (3.0%) |
New-onset diabetes/1000 person-years | 6.1 | 6.8 | 6.6 | 5.8 | 6.0 | 6.9 | 8.4 |
HR (95% CI)*△ | 1.08 (0.83–1.40) | 1.19 (0.97–1.45) | 1.14 (0.97–1.34) | 1.00 | 1.06 (0.90–1.25) | 1.21 (1.01–1.45) | 1.48 (1.25–1.75) |