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Table 4 Hazard ratios (HRs) for diabetes according to weight, body mass index (BMI), and waist circumference (WC) variation in older individuals (2015–2018)

From: Fluctuations in waist circumference increase diabetes risk: a 4-year cohort study in 61,587 older adults

Weight change (kg) < − 6 − 6 to − 3 − 3 to 0 0 0 to 3 3 to 6 > 6
Number
New-onset diabetes (%)
3694
122 (3.3%)
6062 13,730 15,313 13,365 5417 4006
134 (2.2%) 283 (2.1%) 348 (2.3%) 239 (1.8%) 129 (2.4%) 159 (4.0%)
New-onset diabetes/1000 person-years 9.7 6.2 5.8 6.5 5.0 6.7 11.4
HR (95% CI)* 1.48 (1.21–1.83) 0.98 (0.81–1.20) 0.91 (0.77–1.06) 1.00 0.79 (0.67–0.93) 1.05 (0.86–1.29) 1.77 (1.47–2.14)
Weight change (%) < − 10% − 10% to − 5% − 5% to 0 0 0 to 5% 5% to 10% > 10%
Number 3103 5348 10,054 19,206 10,100 6796 6980
New-onset diabetes (%) 67 (2.2%) 130 (2.4%) 233 (2.3%) 393
(2.0%)
217 (2.1%) 167 (2.5%) 207 (3.0%)
New-onset diabetes/1000 person-years 6.1 6.8 6.5 5.8 6.0 6.9 8.4
HR (95% CI)* 1.08 (0.83–1.40) 1.19 (0.97–1.45) 1.14 (0.97–1.34) 1.00 1.06 (0.90–1.25) 1.21 (1.01–1.45) 1.48 (1.25–1.75)
BMI change (kg/m2) < − 2 − 2 to − 1 − 1 to 0 0 0 to 1 1 to 2 > 2
Number 4655 6613 11,206 12,422 11,869 7453 7369
New-onset diabetes (%) 142 (3.1%) 145 (2.2%) 226 (2.0%) 288 (2.3%) 228 (1.9%) 139 (1.9%) 246 (3.3%)
New-onset diabetes/1000 person-years 8.6 6.1 5.6 6.5 5.4 5.2 9.5
HR (95% CI)* 1.32 (1.08–1.62) 0.95 (0.78–1.16) 0.87 (0.73–1.04) 1.00 0.83 (0.70–0.99) 0.80 (0.65–0.98) 1.45 (1.22–1.72)
BMI change (%) < − 10% − 10% to − 5% − 5% to 0 0 0 to 5% 5% to 10% > 10%
Number 2917 6073 13,543 12,422 13,782 7045 5805
New-onset diabetes (%) 84 (2.9%) 150 (2.5%) 281 (2.1%) 288
(2.3%)
258 (1.9%) 156 (2.2%) 197 (3.4%)
New-onset diabetes/1000 person-years 8.1 6.9 5.8 6.5 5.2 6.2 9.7
HR (95% CI)* 1.27 (0.99–1.62) 1.07 (0.88–1.30) 0.90 (0.76–1.06) 1.00 0.81 (0.68–0.95) 0.96 (0.79–1.16) 1.48 (1.23–1.77)
WC change (cm)  < − 6 − 6 to -3 − 3 to 0 0 0 to 3 3 to 6  > 6
Number 5451 5027 8027 19,206 8242 6272 9362
New-onset diabetes (%) 129 (2.4%) 121 (2.4%) 180 (2.2%) 393
(2.0%)
167 (2.0%) 159 (2.5%) 265 (2.8%)
New-onset diabetes/1000 person-years 6.6 6.7 6.4 5.8 5.7 7.1 8.0
HR (95% CI)* 1.17 (0.96–1.43) 1.17 (0.96–1.44) 1.10 (0.92–1.31) 1.00 1.00 (0.83–1.19) 1.25 (1.04–1.50) 1.41 (1.20–1.65)
WC change (%) < − 10% − 10% to − 5% − 5% to 0 0 0 to 5% 5% to 10% > 10%
Number 3103 5348 10,054 19,206 10,100 6796 6980
New-onset diabetes (%) 67 (2.2%) 130 (2.4%) 233 (2.3%) 393
(2.0%)
217 (2.1%) 167 (2.5%) 207 (3.0%)
New-onset diabetes/1000 person-years 6.1 6.8 6.6 5.8 6.0 6.9 8.4
HR (95% CI)* 1.08 (0.83–1.40) 1.19 (0.97–1.45) 1.14 (0.97–1.34) 1.00 1.06 (0.90–1.25) 1.21 (1.01–1.45) 1.48 (1.25–1.75)
  1. *P < 0.01, CI, confidence interval
  2. The HRs were adjusted for confounders including baseline age, ALT and TBIL levels, alcohol consumption, and statin use